Political Expert - Elections Forecasting & Political Risk
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What you'll do
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard
What they're looking for
- A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst
- A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds — not retrospective commentary
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
Summarised by NextRaise from the employer’s description, which follows in full below.
Full description from employer
This role is for one of our clients
Compensation: $150-$250 per hour
We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.
This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.
Requirements
What you will do
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard
Who we are looking for
- A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst
- A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds — not retrospective commentary
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
Backgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
Not a fit
Pure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
Point-in-time discipline
Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
We consider all qualified applicants without regard to legally protected characteristics and provide reasonable accommodations upon request.
Company
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